This is getting brutal. If I used real money, I'd be out of house and home! The cap in the NFL definitely gives the league parity, but for me, it makes my picks look like a parody. I'll just go ahead and get to the results.

• Baltimore 10 (-3.5), Tennessee 25 (36.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: $10.40, T: ($9.60)]: This is why the first couple of weeks in the NFL are so tough. Baltimore was supposed to be good, but it doesn't look like that's going to be the case. I still don't think Tennessee is going to be that good, but I'm changing my stance on Baltimore.?Of course, they could turn this around. Run more.?How do you justify throwing the ball 40 times and only running Jamal Lewis 10 times? Yes, I know they were down, and that forces you to throw more, but it was only 13-0 at half time - two things are obvious there: passing isn't working, and by running the ball (giving your offense more touches), you'll rest your defense.
• Buffalo 3, Tampa Bay 19 (-2.5) (35.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($30.00)]: Ok. Tampa Bay is going to be better than expected. Their defense is good. But I'm still going to go back to running. How hard is it to figure out that you have to establish a running game before a passing attack will work? It's tried and true, and most teams who are successful realize this. Running McGahee only 13 times isn't going to win any games. As a comparison, Tampa Bay handed the ball off 37 times. Yes, they were up late and wanted to grind the clock, but Cadillac Williams didn't get all of his 128 yards after the game was out of hand.
• Detroit 6 (-1), Chicago 38 (33 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: $9.01, T: ($10.99)]: I've always been a believer that Harrington was going to turn it around (think Drew Brees), but this is the year he has to do it. Throwing 5 INTs against the Bears isn't going to cut it, especially with the receivers he has. Why isn't Mike Williams getting more reps? Is he that out of game shape that he's not able to step in? On the other side, Cedric Benson got a good dose of why you should be in camp as a rookie on day one. Thomas Jones ran all over Detroit, and you'll never be able to justify pulling him out if he continues to play like that. With Benson in camp, he could have been groomed to be the number one guy. As it is, he still split time with Jones, but I would expect his time to go down next week based on what Jones did.
• Jacksonville* 3, Indianapolis 10 (-9) (46 O/U) [P: $2.22, S: $10.00, O/U: $9.01, T: $21.23]: This was one of only two games I picked everything right on, and that's surprising considering it's always iffey to pick a team to cover but lose, which is what I did with the Jags. Almost as surprising as that is that Indy is winning games with defense, and that Manning (Mr. Touchdown in 2004) didn't throw a touchdown. The Colts is one of the few teams in the league that doesn't have to establish a run to have a good passing game - but Dungy is smart enough to know the value of the run, especially when teams are dropping 7 or 8 into pass coverage - run Edge. 27 times for 128 yards. If you're not going to give the running game the attention it deserves, James will make you pay.
• Minnesota 8, Cincinnati 37 (-3) (47.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: $9.62, T: ($10.38)]: I thought Culpepper would be better than this. He's got the arm, and he used to distribute the ball to more than just Moss, right? Another team who didn't (or in this case, couldn't) establish the run - 14 attempts? At least call a few "pass" plays and let Culpepper make a play?- he's 265 lbs. He can take a lick or two. It can't be worse than his 5 picks. One more note: Minnesota's defense is obviously not good enough to spend almost 40?minutes on the field. Their offense needs to step up. Cincy is 2-0 and off to a good start. At this rate, they can be average (.500) and possibly make the playoffs.
• New Orleans 10, New York Giants 27 (-3) (44 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: $9.62, T: ($10.38)]: You knew things were going to be rough when you give the ball the Giants on your own 10 yard line to start the game. Things didn't get much better, either. They needed to calm the game down and get McAllister involved a little more - yes, he touched the ball 21 times (15 runs. 6 catches), but he could have slowed the tempo down a little bit. I watched Brooks make some great plays - he has an awesome arm - but he looks like he forces things when hurried. Slowing things down a bit would have been beneficial for them. On the other side, Manning looked pretty good - solid, but not great. He'll get better. Why did they go away from throwing to Burress? He was slaughtering the corners playing against him - just like he did at MSU when I saw him play. Why go away from what works? Well, maybe Tiki Barber. He had a solid game, both running and receiving - he had a rushing and receiving TD last night. Speaking of his receiving TD - did you see the hit his own guy laid on him at the goal line? It looked like Barber hit a brick wall! By the way, I was counting on John Carney to kick about 17 field goals for me to win my fantasy game this week. Obviously, it didn't happen.
• New England 17 (-3), Carolina 27 (43.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($30.00)]: Could Carolina be regaining the form they had when they made it to the Super Bowl? I'm starting to sense a theme here as I write this, but Steven Davis had 25 rushing attempts, and Corey Dillon had 14. And this game doesn't even have a "comeback" excuse - it was 20-17 after three quarters. And in case you're wondering, Tom Brady had 44 pass attempts, so they had the opportunity to run. They just chose not to.
• Pittsburgh 27 (-6), Houston 7 (38.5 O/U) [P: $3.57, S: $10.00, O/U: ($10.00), T: $3.57]: At least these two teams are living up to my preseason expectations - Pittsburgh is good, and Houston is bad. Len Pasquarelli confirmed what I was thinking?(about half way down the first page): The Texans have higher expectations this season, coming straight from the owner. Pittsburgh is firing on all cylinders, and that's only going to continue as they get healthy - regardless of whether Parker starts when Staley comes back. One note: Pittsburgh top rusher ran?25 times to Houston's 15 times. But to be fair, Houston was down big early (20-0 by half time).
• San Francisco* 3, Philadelphia 42 (-13.5) (41 O/U) [P: $1.15, S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($18.85)]: Maybe McNabb should wear his flack jacket every week. He put up five touchdowns, when others were throwing INTs left and right. So much for the whole San Fran underdog story, huh?
• Atlanta 18, Seattle 21 (PK) (41.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($30.00)]: A complete loss here. I missed everything. Vick gets hurt and leaves the game, and I'm sure that hurt Atlanta.
• St. Louis 17, Arizona 12 (PK) (44.5 O/U) [P: $9.09, S: $10.00, O/U: ($10.00), T: $9.09]: Well, St. Louis proved their loss to the hapless 49ers was a fluke. Sort of. They only beat a Cardinal team who has a washed up quarterback and can't establish the run (12 rushes?). I don't think St. Louis will have as good of a year as I originally thought they would.
• Cleveland 26, Green Bay 24 (-6.5) (41 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($30.00)]: Green Bay is in a world of hurt. Of course, they do play in the NFC North, which is just as bad - their combined record is 2-6, and those two wins were in divisional games - someone had to win! It doesn't get much worse than that for the NFC North. If this keeps up, we could see a 7-9 team in the playoffs just because they won the division. Cleveland, despite the win, is still pretty bad. The Packers are bad, yet they only one by two. Who would have guessed though, that Trent Dilfer would put up three touchdowns? Note: The rushing was pretty even in this one (20-16) and, lo and behold, it was a close game!
• Miami* 7, New York Jets 17 (-6) (37 O/U) [P: $3.85, S: ($10.00), O/U: $10.20, T: $4.05]: I'll just start with this: Curtis Martin: 31 rushes. Ronnie Brown: 12 Rushes. Frerotte: 43 pass attempts. Pennington: 30 pass attempts. I think you're starting to see where I'm going. Run the ball and you will win! Establishing the run is key to establishing your offense, and without it, you're going to struggle. It'll be interesting to see if the Dolfins change their philosophy once Ricky Williams returns. The Jets will be watching this week to see what's the word on Martin's MRI. Hopefully he's OK - he's on my fantasy team.
• San Diego 17, Denver 20 (-3) (45 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: $0.00, O/U: ($10.00), T: ($20.00)]: A push, but I picked the winner wrong. This one goes against my theory - the Chargers ran the ball more than the Broncos, and still lost. L.T. had both TDs on the ground, but it wasn't enough to hold on (they led 14-10 after 3 quarters). Antonio Gates had 80 receiving yards to lead the Chargers - think if he'd been there in week one!
• Kansas City 23 (-1), Oakland 17 (53.5 O/U) [P: $8.00, S: $10.00, O/U: $10.50, T: $28.50]: K.C has a defense! And a decent running game - Johnson and Holmes combined to run the ball 28 times and each scored. And one other note: Moss is good, but Collins isn't. I'm guessing both Moss and Culpepper are kind of wishing the trade never happened right about now.
• Washington 14, Dallas 13 (-6) (36 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: $8.70, T: ($11.30)]: This game was awesome! If you stayed up late enough to watch, which I did. I'm a night owl, and when it was 13-0 with just under 6 minutes left, I thought it was over. But somehow, on two different drives, Santana Moss got behind the 'Boys defense on an obvious passing situation and scored both times, giving the 'Skins the W. Maybe Brunell was the right choice after all. We'll see, but I hear Gibbs is a pretty good coach and knows a thing or two about football.

Results Summary

• Picks (this week): 6 - 10 (37.50%) - Winnings: ($72.12): I usually do pretty good picking winners, but this is just horrific.
• Picks (season): 14 - 18 (43.75%) - Winnings: ($112.33): I'm below .500 picking winners for the first time in my three year history of doing picks. That hurts!
• Spread (this week): 4 - 11 (26.67%) - Winnings: ($70.00): Like I said, there's a lot of red up there. That's because I can't pick the spread to save my life. At least one game was a push!
• Spread (season): 10 - 21 (32.26%) - Winnings: ($110.00): I'm good for one of every three games. That's not good, unless you know which one of the three to pick, which I'm guessing I don't.
• Over/Under?(this week): 8 - 8 (50.00%) - Winnings: ($2.96) Who would have guessed that I'd be doing best at picking the over/under? Not me, that's for sure.
• Over/Under (season): 16 - 15 (51.61%) - Winnings: $0.52: My lone positive number. Of course, candy bars from vending machines don't even cost $.50 any more.
• Total Weekly Winnings: ($145.08): That's a huge loss based on $480 in bets. That's a loss of over 30% of my bets. Ouch.
• Total Overall Winnings: ($221.82): I'm down big early. That's not a good sign. Down 23%.

I'll go back to the drawing board for next week - maybe pick teams that have a tendency to rush more. That seems to be a good theory. And did you notice that most of the bolds above are the first team - the away team. I noticed that on Saturday, but stuck with my picks. I was worried, and those worries came?to pass. Picking the away team in 14 of 16 games (counting the Saints as?the?away team - they were!)?isn't going to cut it - the home team wins 57% of home games, so picking the road team consistently isn't a good idea. I'll note that for next time, which will be Thursday!

Technorati Tags: nfl | odds