RossCode Picks - NFL Week VIII

posted on 10/27/05 at 11:33:14 pm by Joel Ross

This could be an interesting week. Six of the 14 games have spreads of more than a touchdown. This is indicative of how Parity works in the NFL. It's not really parity from game to game - it's parity from season to season. When you look at just one season, you don't see the parity from week to week. A bad team will always be a bad team, and a good team will always be a good team. This week, the really bad teams are playing the really good teams. Hence the big spreads.

  • Arizona* vs. Dallas (-9.5) (40 O/U): This one seems too big to me. McCown has solid weapons to throw to. They're missing a running game, which is always problematic in my mind, but Dallas isn't running much better. Dallas wins, but not by 10.
  • Chicago vs. Detroit (-3) (32.5 O/U): The battle for the Norris is on! Given that Detroit is the sole NFC North team to win on the road, you almost have to give ths one to them. I expect a lot of Thomas Jones, and he'll get his yards, especially if Rogers is out on the defensive line. And with Dre Bly gone for a few weeks, that may open up the passing game for Chicago. Wait - without Bly, who's going to score touchdowns for Detroit this week? Oh, that's right. Harrington got yanked, and Garcia is running things now!
  • Cleveland vs. Houston (-1.5) (37 O/U): How much must it hurt to be a 'dog to the Texans? Yeah, it's in Houston, and that's usually good for a few points, so if this was in Cleveland, most likely the Browns would be the fave.
  • Green Bay vs. Cincinnati (-9.5) (46 O/U): Cincy gets a reprieve for a few weeks, and it starts with the Packers. They'll be reeling once again, with the loss of Ferguson and Green for the year. They're slowly running out of options over there in Green Bay. Luckily, Favre is still there, and he'll will a few more wins this year, but not this week.
  • Jacksonville (-3) vs. St. Louis (42.5 O/U): No Bulger and no Martz, again, and while they were able to beat at hapless Saints team, Jacksonville is slightly better than New Orleans. Leftwich is quietly putting together a very solid season, and they'll get it done again this week.
  • Miami vs. New Orleans (-2.5) (41 O/U): Everyone knew New Orleans would be bad this year, and everyone hoped that they wouldn't be horrible after the tragedy that struck the city of New Orleans and forced the Saints to relocate. But in reality, that doesn't make a team better for the long term. And losing Joe Horn and Deuce McAllister certainly doens't help the situation. Miami, under Nick Saban, has to get better. I don't think you'll see much of Ricky this week - he hasn't shown that he deserves to play.
  • Minnesota* vs. Carolina (-8) (44.5 O/U): Of the six games with huge spreads, this is probably the one I don't get. There's no doubt that Minnesota isn't all that good, but Carolina isn't either. Carolina's better than Minnesota right now, but not that much better. This'll be a close one, I think.
  • Oakland (-1) vs. Tennessee (45.5 O/U): Oakland finally figured out that running LaMont Jordan was a necessity, and that the presence of Moss opens up the field for Jordan. If they keep that up, they'll be moderately successful for the rest of the way.
  • Washington vs. New York Giants (-2) (42 O/U): Eli Manning is looking to become the comeback kid. Two 4th quarter game ending drives to win the game in the past two weeks will get people excited and backing the kid, even in NYC. Washington has a solid defense, and they're starting to figure out how Portis fits into their game, and they're going to get better too. The NFC East is a rough division, and this'll be a ground out game.
  • Kansas City vs. San Diego (-6) (50.5 O/U): San Diego at home. L.T. coming off what is probably his poorest performance ever. A divisional game to boot. I'm guessing the Chargers will be fired up, and they'll stomp on the Chiefs.
  • Philadelphia vs. Denver (-3.5) (42.5 O/U): Philadelphia showed why they are the team to beat in the NFC last week, holding the best running back in the game to seven yards. Denver can run, but if the Eagles focus on that game, Anderson/Bell will be shut down. And then it's up to Plummer, and you know how I feel about him.
  • Tampa Bay (-11) vs. San Francisco (36 O/U): "Chuckie" is up to his old magic, and has this Bucs team playing well. A trip to California will help them gain confidence too. Do the 49ers regret trading Rattay now? He'll be on the field Sunday, but in the wrong uniform. And Alex Smith, the reason they felt they could trade Rattay, won't be. That leaves Ken Dorsey to run the San Fran offense. Not much to work with, but they won't be doing?much against the Buc defense.
  • Buffalo vs. New England (-9.5) (44 O/U): Will Ted Bruschi be back? I think he'll play, and that will give this defense the boost they need to shut down the Bills offense. McGahee proved that he needs a passing game to be able to run, and they don't have that right now.
  • Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh (-10) (44 O/U): Here's yet another case of a Monday night game that looked good on paper when the schedule was put together. But now, it looks like a lopsided game that shouldn't even be the premiere game on Sunday afternoon. With Jamal Lewis out, we'll get to see what Chester Taylor can do with a full work load. I think he'll do pretty good, but the Steeler defense is very solid. And they'll be taking "The Bus" a lot more this week, which spells trouble for a defense already pretty weak.

We'll review next week!


Categories: Football