NFL Picks: 08-09 Week 4 Results and Week 5 Picks

posted on 10/02/08 at 09:37:26 pm by Joel Ross

I didn't do too bad this week, honestly. 8-5 in picks and spread - I could live with that long term! It's the over / under that killed me this week.

For those who've been around a while, last year, I used to post about how much money I would have won or lost based on a $10 bet per pick (actually $30 per pick - picking the outright winner, the winner against the spread, and the over/under). At some point, I started comparing that to how I would have done against putting that same amount of money ($360-$480 per week) into an index fund. I still have the fund stats, so I figured with all of the financial news lately, I'd see how things looked. My theory (at the end of the season) was that the market typically goes up, so over time, investing in the market would be better. I still think that, but this proves that a year isn't long enough - or at least this year isn't. At the end of last year, I would have had $7,742.69 (after betting $8,010). Had that same amount been invested on a weekly basis in an index fund, the value (as of closing today) would have been $5,559.47. That's a loss of over $2,000 by gambling on the stock market instead of the NFL!

Note that I'm not advocating betting on the NFL or the stock market - if you did nothing with your money, you'd have $8,010 - more than either of the two options! Anyway, onto last week's review.

  • Atlanta 9, Carolina 24 (-7) (39.5 O/U)
  • Cleveland 20, Cincinnati 12 (-3.5) (44.5 O/U): Someone had to win, right?
  • Houston 27, Jacksonville 30 (-7.5) (42 O/U)
  • Denver 19 (-9.5), Kansas City* 33 (46.5 O/U): I was surprised by this one. Apparently Denver only wins at home!
  • San Francisco 17, New Orleans 31 (-5.5) (48 O/U)
  • Arizona 35, New York Jets 56 (-1.5) (45 O/U): They doubled the over / under. Wow.
  • Green Bay 21, Tampa Bay 30 (-1) (42.5 O/U)
  • Minnesota 17, Tennessee 30 (-3) (36 O/U): This picking Tennessee thing has been working out nicely!
  • San Diego 28 (-7.5), Oakland 18 (45.5 O/U)
  • Buffalo 31 (-8), St. Louis 14 (42 O/U)
  • Washington* 26, Dallas 24 (-11) (46 O/U): I didn't think Washington was that good. Apparently neither did the odds makers!
  • Philadelphia 20 (-3), Chicago 24 (41 O/U)
  • Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 23 (-6.5) (34.5 O/U)

Results Summary

  • Picks (this week / season): 8 - 5 / 37 - 23
  • Spread (this week / season): 8 - 5 / 31 - 28
  • Over/Under (this week / season): 4 - 8 / 28 - 30

Green Bay is potentially without Aaron Rodgers, so that game is completely off the boards in all of Vegas - they won't put odds on it until they have at least some certainty on who's in or out. My guess is that Green Bay is the favorite either way, but the spread and the money line will be different depending on if he plays or not. Honestly, it's hard to imagine him playing with a separated shoulder, but I guess we'll see.

  • Tennessee (-3) vs. Baltimore (33 O/U): I'll stick with Tennessee for this one. Baltimore hasn't been impressive.
  • Kansas City vs. Carolina (-9.5) (38.5 O/U)
  • Chicago (-3.5) vs. Detroit (44.5 O/U)
  • Atlanta vs. Green Bay:
  • Indianapolis (-3) vs. Houston (47 O/U): How far the mighty have fallen. I can't think of a time since Houston entered the league that they would only be a three point dog to the Colts.
  • San Diego (-6.5) vs. Miami (44.5 O/U)
  • Seattle vs. New York Giants (-7) (43.5 O/U)
  • Washington vs. Philadelphia (-6) (42.5 O/U): The NFC East is a tough division. The problem is that they'll be beating up on each other all season, meaning that whoever prevails will be a battered team going into the playoffs.
  • Tampa Bay vs. Denver (-3) (48 O/U)
  • Buffalo vs. Arizona (0) (44.5 O/U)
  • Cincinnati* vs. Dallas (-17) (44 O/U): 17 points? Wow. Cincinnati is like New England last year - only the opposite. Last year, New England was favored by 10+ points on every game. Cincy could end up being a 10+ point dog regularly this year.
  • New England (-3) vs. San Francisco (41 O/U)
  • Pittsburgh vs. Jacksonville (-4) (36.5 O/U)
  • Minnesota vs. New Orleans (-3) (46.5 O/U)

Check back next week for the results and more picks.

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Categories: Football