After going 19-12 in the two weeks against the spread, I started to feel pretty good about my abilities. I even wondered how people couldn't make money at this. And contemplated what putting actual money on the games would be like.

Then on Saturday, I started wondering what happens if my picks suddenly took a drastic turn for the worse. Then Sunday, it happened. Let's review first:

• Pittsburgh 13, Miami 3 (-1.5): Not having a reason to pick a team is a bad thing.
• Jacksonville 15, Tennessee 12 (-6): Jacksonville appears to be the real deal, and obviously, McNair getting hurt didn't help things.
• Cleveland 10, New York Giants 27 (-2.5): Wow. Was this the Kurt Warner from 1999 - 2001? 27 points from a mediocre Giant team is...what? Good news for New York, or bad news for Cleveland? Don't ask me. I can't even predict the outcome of one game!
• Baltimore 23 (-3), Cincinnati 9: My first correct pick. Baltimore's defense is too good, and they have a decent offense.
• Houston 24, Kansas City 21 (-9): The biggest shocker of the week. I picked Houston, but KC to win - obviously that didn't happen. Remember all the talk of how weak the Chiefs defense was, and how it was blown off because the offense was too good? Well, the offense has come back down to earth, and the defense has fallen further. 0-3 is not a good sign for KC. Houston has lost to San Diego and Detroit, but beat KC. Does that mean Kansas City is worse than the Chargers?
• New Orleans 28, St. Louis 25 (-7): Ahh, the revenge of the squib kick! Squibs are good in two situations: 1) The other team has to drive the whole length of the field and score a TOUCHDOWN (note: touchdown does not equal field goal), and 2) When you're feeling generous and want to give the other team a chance. Given that St. Louis was up by three at the time, the Saints didn't have to go the full length of the field to tie the game. Obviously, Mike Martz was feeling generous. Apparently winning records aren't a major concern for the Rams.
• Chicago 22, Minnesota 27 (-9): Same mistake, different week: see Week 2, Chicago vs. Green Bay.
• Philadelphia 30 (-4), Detroit 13: I loved the discussions on the local radio stations about the Lions. Are they for real? Can they beat the Eagles? I remember the same discussions back in the '90s when the played Washington in the Conference Finals. And the answer was the same. Nope. But Detroit could be. They have potential - Roy Williams is GOOD.
• Arizona 3, Atlanta 6 (-9.5): Yawn. Did anyone actually watch the whole game? And I mean anyone? Maybe the coaching staff? But I even find that hard to believe.
• San Diego 13, Denver 23 (-10): I guess Quentin Griffin isn't what he seemed to be. I guess that KC defense makes every running back look good, even if they aren't. Anyway, my lock-solid pick was right (a sole bright spot for the week). Of course, for the spread, it doesn't count - matched spreads are thrown out (another, slightly dimmer, bright spot).
• Green Bay vs. Indianapolis (-6.5): What a thrilling game to watch. Not exactly a football purist's type of game. But to see the offense put up in that game was awesome. Just think: Manning was on his way to a 900 yard passing game after the first quarter. And despite the loss, Favre looked good. Indy is just too good.
• San Francisco 0, Seattle 34 (-11): The first time San Fran was shut out in a long time. I guess losing your coach, quarterback, wide receiver, and running back can hurt a team. Who knew?
• Tampa Bay 20, Oakland 30 (-3): I can't believe this was a Sunday night game. This was the best match up (besides the Monday night game) the NFL could find? And don't tell me it was at the beginning of the season, because it wasn't. This one would have stunk last year too!
• Dallas 24, Washington 21 (-2.5): Washington had it's chances. Gibbs made a few bad choices, and by the end of the game, they didn't have any timeouts left to kick a game tying field goal. Parsels 1, Gibbs 0.

So there you have it. All of 4 games picked correctly. Very solid! Overall, here's where things stand:

I alluded to a new way to track how well my picks are going. I was too busy with work, so I didn't get to it. I probably won't get to it next week either, as next week will be a 60+ hour week, on top of my wife's birthday.