Well, after picking every game this year, I guess it's about time I make my Super Bowl pick.

But first, let's do a review of the conference finals. Not a full review, since the games were almost two weeks ago. I was 1-2, both against the spread and picking winners. I didn't take New England, but did get Philly right.

Ok. Now the Super Bowl. First, some history. I picked New England to win in 11 of their 16 regular season games, and I was 8-3. So far, I haven't taken them in the playoffs, and I was wrong both times. As far as Philly goes, I was 7-6 when picking them in the regular season, and the only time I picked them in the playoffs I was right. I picked against them, and lost. Based on the numbers alone, I should take New England - I have a better track record picking them than the Eagles (8-3 versus 8-6).

But numbers don't play the game. People do. And there's a few variables at play here. First, the biggest news. Owens most likely will play. I don't think most people are giving that fact much play. Since he's said he probably will play, the line has moved from -7 for New England to -7.5. that means since Owens said he would play, more people are taking New England.

Of course all of this assumes Owens is going to play, and this isn't a pre-Super Bowl hype. His doctors won't clear him, leaving it up to the Eagles. They have a lot invested in him, their team made it over the Conference Finals hump, and they look like they'll be just as good next year. And the team has been playing good throughout the playoffs. Do you risk the long term health of your star wideout for a Super Bowl you could win regardless? Or do you use that so the other team prepares for him, and is left in a lurch when he's not there? Of course, New England will be prepared for both, and not seeing Terrell most likely won't cause his defense to bat an eye.

Which brings me to New England. They are heavy favorites. They have the chance to get the media to start the Dynasty talk. And they have Freddie Mitchell's bulletin board material. They have experience, and a coach who doesn't let the hype get to them. They don't get overconfident. They just play their game, and they shut down their opponents.

So where do I fall. I'm taking New England to win, but Philly to cover. Seven points is a lot in the Super Bowl. Remember, they only beat Carolina (how'd they get to the Super Bowl?) by three last year.

And of course, the commercials will probably outshowcase the game!