Let's Try This Again, Or "How Can I Be As Bad As I Was Last Week?"

posted on 2004-10-01 at 23:30:11 by Joel Ross

After a pathetic week last week, I'll drag myself up out of the doghouse and try again. Of course, looking at the match ups, I think a coin toss would be a better choice than me picking them. My loan bright spot (besides the fact I'm not actually using real money on this stuff) is that I have been right on all three of my rock solid pick of the week. Note: this pretty much ensures I'll be wrong this week.

Without further ado, let's get started.

  • New York Giants vs. Green Bay (-7): Green Bay is 1-2. First, they put up 24 points against a tough Carolina defense. Then they lost to Chicago. Ouch. Then they rebound, but still lose. If the team that played Chicago shows, they'll lose. I'm counting on the odd week team showing up in week 4.
  • Philadelphia (-9) vs. Chicago: Three weeks in a row now, Chicago's been given 9 points. In the past two, I've picked thier opponent and Chicago has managed to cover (winning one of the two games). This week, I'll try again. Why? Well, Philly is much better than both Green Bay and Minnesota. I'm probably setting myself up for failure, but oh well.
  • Washington (-3) vs. Cleveland: Cleveland doesn't have the defense of Dallas, and yet Washington put up points against them. No reason to assume they can't do the same against the Browns. Cleveland's offense has slowly deteriorated (scored 20, then 12, then 10), but the defenses have gotten worse (Baltimore, Dallas, and then the Giants). Odd.
  • New England (-5.5) vs. Buffalo: New England hasn't lost a game in over a year. And they still remember the 31-0 shellacking Buffalo gave them the first game of last year. Interestingly, both teams are coming off a bye. I have no idea what that means.
  • Oakland (-2.5) vs. Houston: Houston beats Kansas City in KC. Then Oakland comes to town, and they can't even be the favorite? I don't think that's right. Look for Houston to not only cover, but win.
  • Indianapolis (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville: Will anyone care when Jacksonville has the ball (except for Fred Taylor and Jimmy Smith fantasy owners)? The marquee match up is the Indy O against the Jags D. Of course, this only means the game will be decided by either the Colts D or one of the two guys previously mentioned.
  • Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh (-4.5): Pittsburgh is 2-1, but they've only beat Miami and Oakland. Cincy beat Miami too, lost to Baltimore (as did Pittsburgh), and lost to the Jets. I'm not even sure previous match ups matter, but my gut says both teams will be 2-2 at the end of the weekend. Of course, look where my gut got me last week!
  • Atlanta vs. Carolina (-3.5): Carolina isn't a Super Bowl team this year, but their defense is solid. And Atlanta's offense is still trying to find some cohesiveness. A tough defense won't help that search.
  • New Orleans (-3) vs. Arizona: A Ross code of betting: never pick Arizona. So far that strategy would make you 1-2. But those two have been spreads of 9+ points. This is only three, and Arizona hasn't been closer than three yet.
  • New York Jets (-6) vs. Miami: I'm not big on Miami. I think putting in Feidler is a good move. He's 36-18 all-time for Miami, but has been sitting on the bench in favor of Feeley? Did Ricky Williams see something we missed, and that's why he retired?
  • Denver (-3) vs. Tampa Bay: Wow, only three points? As Chick (of Bob and Tom fame) says, "THAT'S NOT ENOUGH!"
  • Tennessee (-3) vs. San Diego: Again, only three points? Yes, most likely McNair won't play, but San Diego still isn't good enough to beat the Titans.
  • St. Louis (-3.5) vs. San Francisco: I doubt San Fran will get shut out this time, but beating St. Louis? I doubt it. By the way, who's making schedules here? San Fransisco on a Sunday night? I could have told you that losing your offense would make the 49ers a boring team to watch. St. Louis should take them to the house (over and over and over and...well, you get the idea)
  • Kansas City vs. Baltimore (-5.5): Now this doesn't look like a great match up for Monday night, but I'll give the NFL the benefit of the doubt. This was a good paper match up at the beginning of the season. Now? Well, everyone is waiting for Kansas City to finally win one. Could this be the game? I doubt it. Jamal Lewis can run, and KC just seems to accentuate that fact for most running backs.

There's something odd about this week that I noticed as I put this together. 10 of 14 games have road teams as favorites. Only Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Carolina and Baltimore are home team favorites this week. And I'm not convinced that Pittsburgh should be.

Anyway, this could be a big week for the roadies, or it could be a bad week for oddsmakers! We'll find out by Monday I guess.

Categories: Football