For The Seventh Time, It's NFL Picks

posted on 2004-10-22 at 10:05:00 by Joel Ross

Yeah, I'm getting bored titling it the same way every time. And yea, the name's still dumb. But it's 12:50 when I'm starting to write this, so I have a right to be a little stupid with my titles. Ask my wife. Staying up this late is stupid!

Anyway, there's 10 home favoriites this week again. That's three weeks in a row that 10 or more home teams have been the favorite. The week before that, 10 road teams were the favorite. Once you know this type of information, everything else just falls in place. If you can figure out how that data affects games. Which I can't. So with that lovely explanation, here's my picks.

  • Buffalo vs. Baltimore (-5.5): Yes, Buffalo is coming off a win, but Miami isn't quite up to the level that Baltimore is. Baltimore should cover easily.
  • Detroit vs. New York Giants (-6.5): I waiver back and forth on Detroit. New York has looked good at times, and good enough (against Green Bay) at other times. I'll pick the Giants, but if Roy Williams is playing, Detroit has a good chance to win. He makes Harrington looks good.
  • Philadelphia (-7) vs. Cleveland: Philly is the power in the NFC right now. I don't see Cleveland beating them, let alone getting within 7. Of course, who knows. With the war of words between Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens, it may give Garcia some motivation to really take it to the Eagles. Still, I don't think it will be enough.
  • Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis (-9): Indy's offense is (still) unstoppable. Jacksonville's defense is good, but Peyton Manning has picked apart better defenses. Taylor should have a decent day against a weak Indy defense, but it won't be enough.
  • Tennessee vs. Minnesota (-6.5): Which Tennessee team will show up? The one who scorched the Packers, or the one who lost to Houston? And which Culpepper will show up? The one who throws three touchdowns or the one who throws five? See my point? Minnesota's offense is great! Culpepper looks comfortable, and isn't throwing interceptions this year. Minnesota should roll.
  • San Diego vs. Carolina (-3): Wow. Carolina must still be getting respect from last year's Super Bowl appearance. A team that's 1-4 is a favorite over a team who's 3-3? Maybe oddsmakers should take a look at the Financial industry: "Past performance is not indicative of future performance." I thnk San Diego will win this one outright.
  • St. Louis (-6) vs. Miami: Miami doesn't have a hurricane to help them, so this should be a cake walk for the Rams, who are quietly on a three game winning streak.
  • Chicago vs. Tampa Bay (-7): Tampa Bay isn't that good, and I don't think Chicago is that bad. I picked Chicago to upset the Bucs.
  • Atlanta vs Kansas City (-3.5): I picked Atlanta, but it is an odd week, so that may come back to bite me later. Mike Vick should be able to run all over the Kansas City defense, and when he isn't running, he can pass on them too. All Atlanta has to do on defense is stop Priest Holmes, and the rest will fall in place.
  • New York Jets vs. New England (-6): Barring a tie, this will be the last regular season undefeated match up. Probably the last one of the football season too - barring the winner of this team and Philadelphia going to the Super Bowl both without losing. I picked the Jets, but I think New England will win this one. It'll be close though.
  • Dallas vs. Green Bay (-4): I think Brett Favre has regained his composure, and is ready to start competing. Remember, Green Bay was 1-3 last season and still made the playoffs, so going 1-4 and then turning it around wouldn't be unheard of. I'm not going to go that far - their defense is not good enough for that - but they should be able to beat Dallas.
  • Seattle (-7) vs. Arizona: My lock of the week. Seattle has lost two in a row, and should be ready to get back in the win column. Arizona is a perfect team for doing that against.
  • New Orleans vs. Oakland (-3): I'm just not on board with the whole Oakland thing. I don't think they are that good. They traded Rice, so they got slightly younger, but they also gave up the best receiver of all time. They'll lose this one.
  • Denver (-6) vs. Cincinnati: Denver's running game is clicking (as if that's a surprise). Cincinnati isn't that good, and should struggle on Monday night. Denver to cover.

So there it is. Another week of picks. I'm finally starting to get into the season - other than hockey, I struggle to get into seasons until they start developing. For example, I'm just getting into baseball - after only 175 or so games! And basketball - well, usually I only watch the finals, but the Pistons being in it last year made me start watching in the Conference Finals. I still follow what's going on, but it's tough to get into watching the games early in the season. Anyway, I'm finally starting to look forward to watching a few of the match ups - probably more than I'll actually get to watch!

Categories: Football