After spending last weekend watching every single snap, I doubt I'll get to do that this weekend - as much as I would like to! By the way, it's said that this weekend is the best weekend to bet on games because they're easy to pick - just pick the rested team (who happens to at home and a better team). Seems simple enough, right? Now, they aren't saying by spread - just the winner. So how does that stand up? Last year, you'd have been 2-2, and (assuming you bet $10 per game), you would have lost over $13 of your $40 bet. In '05-'06, you'd have been 2-2 as well, but only losing a little over $11. '03-'04 was also 2-2. Only in '04-'05 would you have gone 4-0. So, I guess conventional wisdom doesn't quite work - in the 4 years I've been tracking, the home team is 10-6.

• Jacksonville* vs. New England (-11.5) (48.5 O/U): There are some huge spreads this weekend - and all home teams are favorites, which seems obvious. New England's seems a bit large to me, but they should pull it out.
• San Diego* vs. Indianapolis (-10) (47 O/U): Same applies for Indy here. 10 points between two playoff teams is a lot of points.
• New York Giants vs. Dallas (-7.5) (47 O/U): This'll be a grudge match. It should come down to Romo vs. Manning. Who can prove they are playoff ready? Was Manning's (private) goal to just get a win, or does he want to go farther? If he plays like he did in the first half of the New England game and last week, they have the potential to roll through Dallas. On the other hand, Dallas is a strong team. If T.O. plays, they should be able to get past New York.
• Seattle* vs. Green Bay (-8) (40.5 O/U): Saturday in Green Bay: High of 31 with snow. The Frozen Tundra will be in full effect. It used to be that Green Bay was unbeatable in January in Wisconsin. That hasn't been the case, but Favre looks more like the quarterback he was in the '90s than in the past couple of years. Look out Seattle!

My "Lock Solid" pick for this week is Indianapolis (-440). San Diego is good. Just not that good this year.

Should be a good weekend of football. I'm excited! Check back next week for results.

Tags: NFL | Picks | Odds