RossCode Picks - Preseason Revisited

posted on 11/10/05 at 09:07:24 pm by Joel Ross

So, we're between week 9 and 10 - roughly the half way point. Each team has played at least 8 games, so it's time to look back at my preseason predictions and see how I'm doing.

First, let's start with the division winners:

  • AFC East: I said New England would win the division. Despite being 4-4, they are in first place. I still feel pretty good about this one, since no one else seems to be ready to step up in that division.
  • AFC North: Pittsburgh was my pick. Right now, Cincy is in first place by 1/2 a game, but they have to play Pittsburgh again. If Pittsburgh gets Roethlisburger back healthy, they should still be able to pull this one off.
  • AFC South: This is probably my surest pick: Indy. They already have a 3 game lead - probably no real chance of surrendering that one!
  • AFC West: San Diego. They probably won't pull it off, but they still have a chance. Denver holds the lead, and look pretty good. I'm guessing they'll take the division
  • Wild Cards: Neither of my picks stand a chance. I had Baltimore and the Jets. How wrong I was! I'm guessing that Cincy and San Diego will get them now.

As far as the way I saw the playoffs going, I'm still seeing a Pittsburgh vs. Indy in the AFC Championship, with Indy in the Super Bowl.

  • NFC East: I said the Eagles were "the only choice really." Oops. They're only two games back, but they aren't exactly a team on it's way up. This one is up for grabs, but the way the Giants are playing, I'd say they are the favorites.
  • NFC North: I said Minnesota, and we can see how that's going. Chicago is likely to take the North, and will probably be above .500. Surprises all around!
  • NFC South: Carolina. Still looking good, but Atlanta is right there. Still up for grabs.
  • NFC West: St. Louis. Probably wrong here. Seattle is playing way too well right now, and St. Louis is without their coach.
  • Wild Cards: Seattle and Atlanta. Either Atlanta or Carolina will get a wild card (the other will win the division). St. Louis probably won't get in (Seattle will be in the playoffs), and neither will the Eagles. Dallas or Washington will get the other wild card.

Playoffs: I picked Seattle and Atlanta to win the first round. I could still be correct. But my pick for the Eagles to go back to the Super Bowl? Nope. Not going to happen. I'm going to go with Seattle versus Atlanta, with Seattle going to the Super Bowl. I'll still stick with my Indy Super Bowl pick.

Now, how about team over/under wins? I'll list out the over/under, and then

  • Arizona Cardinals - 7.5 (O -137 / U +125):?2 wins so far. I'm pretty safe here!
  • Atlanta Falcons - 9.5 (O +114 / U -125):?Not going to get this one. They already have 6 wins, and show no signs of slowing.
  • Baltimore Ravens - 9.5 (O -135 / U +123): If they win out, then I'd be right. That won't happen.
  • Buffalo Bills - 8.5 (O + 138 / U -150):?They'd have to finish 6-2 to go over, and that probably won't happen. I'm safe here.
  • Carolina Panthers - 9.5 (O +106 / U -116): 6 wins so far. Looking pretty good.
  • Chicago Bears?- 6.5 (O -108 / U -102):?The Bears need 2 wins to go over. And they still have games against other NFC North teams. They'll get those.
  • Cincinnati Bengals - 7.5 (O -197 / U +179):?One win needed to go over. I'm pretty sure I'm good here.
  • Cleveland Browns - 4.5 (O -120 / U +110): 3 wins so far. They need to go 2-6 to go over. It's still a possibility that I'll be right, but it's not looking good.
  • Dallas Cowboys - 8.5 (O -117 / U +107):?They surprised me this year, and they already have 5 wins. They should get 4 more, although they don't exactly have an easy schedule - only Detroit is a given.
  • Denver Broncos - 8.5 (O -132 / U +120):?They'll get three more wins and blow the 8.5 o/u away. Oops.
  • Detroit Lions - 8.5 (O +135 / U -147): 6-2 over the next eight games? Nope. With their schedule, they won't do it. They'd have to beat one of the following teams: Cincinnati, Dallas or Pittsburgh. Plus they'd have to win the rest of their games. Not going to happen.
  • Green Bay Packers - 7.5 (O -107 / U -103): They're 1-7 right now. As good as Favre is, he's not going to go 7-1 over the next eight games.
  • Houston Texans - 7.5 (O +128 / U -139): They're (surprisingly) in the same boat as Green Bay - needing to go 7-1 to hit their mark. Again, no way!
  • Indianapolis Colts - 11.5 (O -128 / U +128): I'm still on track here. 8-0 is a great start, and while they won't go undefeated and have a tougher schedule down the stretch, they'll at least go 4-4 to finish out the season.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars - 8.5 (O -107 / U -103): I'm probably wrong here. They only need to go 4-4 to finish the year. Their next four games are Baltimore, Tennessee, Arizona, and Cleveland. That should do it. And if not, they play San Franscisco, Tennessee (again) and Houston. They could go 8-0 or 7-1 pretty easily. That other game? Against Indy.
  • Kansas City Chiefs - 8.5 (O -177 / U +164):?Another team that's got to finish 4-4 to hit their mark. They probably will, but Holmes is done for the season. Larry Johnson is good, but can he handle a full load for the remainder of the year?
  • Miami Dolfins - 5.5 (O -145 / U +133): They need to match their current record (3-5) to hit their mark. I think they will, but who knows.
  • Minnesota Vikings - 9.5 (O -121 / U +110):?Can the Vikings go 7-1 to finish the year? No. But that's what they'd have to do for me to be right.
  • New England Patriots - 10.5 (O -128 / U +117): Another team that needs to go 7-1 to go over. Again, not likely, but they do have a schedule that could let them do it.
  • New Orlean Saints - 7.5 (O -135/ U +125):?2 wins so far. They need 6 more, so they'd have to go 6-1 to finish. While it'd be the story of the year in the NFL, it's not going to happen.
  • New York Giants - 6.5 (O -160 / U +140): They need one win to hit this. Yeah, they will.
  • New York Jets - 9.5 (O +153 / U -165): Can the Jets go a perfect 8-0 to finish the year? No. Not without Pennington. Given Pennington is done for the year, I'm feeling pretty good about this pick.
  • Oakland Raiders - 7.5 (O -136 / U +125):?They need to turn things around to get close to this number. They have 3 wins, but have a tough division to get the 5 they need to go over.
  • Philadelphia Eagles - 11.5 (O +135 / U -146): Like the Jets, they must go 8-0 to hit the over. Not going to happen.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers - 9.5 (O -126 / U +116):?They'll go better than .500 to finish the year, and that'll push them over.
  • St. Louis Rams - 8.5 (O -136 / U +124): This is tough. They're only 4-4, but need 5 wins to finish up. Looking at the schedule, they have 4 pretty sure wins, but those others are up in the air. They should get one, but who knows.
  • San Diego Chargers - 8 (O -154 / U +142):?They need to go 4-3 to finish the season. I think they will. They should at least get the three to push.
  • San Francisco 49ers - 4.5 (O +118 / U -130): I only see 3 wins even?possible for these guys. They'll probably drop one of those, which means I'll be right!
  • Seattle Seahawks - 8.5 (O -143 / U +130): 3 wins, and they got it. They'll get those.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 (O -199 / U +185): 2 more wins? Piece of cake!
  • Tennessee Titans - 6.5 (O +113 / U -125):?5-2 finish for a 2-7 team? No way.
  • Washington Redskins - 7.5 (O +125 / U -137):?They're in a tough division, so who knows what will happen, but they only need 3 more wins in 8 tries to go over. They should.

Ok. Back to my regular weekly picks. We won't revisit these again until after the season is over.

Categories: Football