RossCode Picks - NFL Week IV Review

posted on 2005-10-04 at 21:53:15 by Joel Ross

There's?a lot of red here, and not nearly enough green. I'd feel that way even more if I was using real money! Comments will probably be brief this week. I didn't get to watch one single game?- I was gone all day Sunday, and last night was spent in some Tourney Logic code or playing XBox.

  • Buffalo 7, New Orleans 19 (0) (39.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($30.00)]: It definitely sounds like Losman is starting to suffer from the rookie quarterback syndrome. The saying "can't see the forest through the trees" seems fitting. When you're in the trenches, it's hard to get the bigger picture. If Losman had a little time on the sidelines watching the game and the decisions someone else is making, he'd have a better appreciation for what's going on. Back to my theme: New Orleans stuck to the running game (McAllister ran 27 times), while Buffalo only rushed McGahee 16 times. But that's not the most telling stat of the game: New Orleans held the ball for 13 minutes longer than Buffalo did. So that 16 rushes? Well, Buffalo only threw the ball 21 times. They also had 7 other rushes, so all in all, they ran more than passed. Their offense just wasn't on the field enough.
  • Denver 20, Jacksonville 7 (-3.5) (37 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: $9.09, T: ($10.91)]: Rememer at the beginning of the season there was all the talk about how Tatem Bell would obviously be taking away the starting job from Mike Anderson? Well, after Anderson's 115 yards this week and a big game last week, that may not happen.?On the other hand, maybe they've been watching Kansas City: Bell also had 15 rushes for 60 yards - that's 38 rushes between the two of them. On the other side, when you have Fred Taylor healthy, why is he only getting eight carries?
  • Detroit 13, Tampa Bay 17 (-6.5) (34 O/U) [P: $3.55, S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($16.45)]: The calls for Harrington's head are loud and clear. Unfortunately, there's no one?to back him up. But watching Harrington, at times I wonder if you'd be better off with a headless quarterback. Yes, the Lions should have won, but they couldn't get it done when they needed to. Tampa Bay continues their tear through the NFC North, and maybe found something out they'll find useful: They can win using their everyday car (Pittman) and can live without the Cadillac when it's in the shop.
  • Houston 10, Cincinnati 16 (-9.5) (42.5 O/U) [P: $2.25, S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($17.75)]: The shocker here is that it was this close. Could it be that Cincy isn't as good as everyone thinks, or was it just an off day? We'll find out next week against Jacksonville. The calls for Dom Capers job are getting louder and louder, but here's the key problem with Houston: Carr is on pace to be sacked over 100 times. With as many times as he's been hit, it's amazing he's still playing. Maybe he should have taken a page out of Eli Manning's book and refused to play for a team like Houston, and forced a trade to someone better.
  • Indianapolis 31 (-7), Tennessee 10 (45 O/U) [P: $3.33, S: $10.00, O/U: $9.09, T: $22.42]: Indy's offense finally came alive - Manning had four touchdowns - and they even kept Edge in the game, giving him 21 carries and a pair of catches - including one touchdown. Why can the offense perform so well? Well, for starters, Manning hasn't been sacked all year. That's pretty telling of how their line is playing. The defense is having a stellar year so far - they've only given up 26 points all year. With what we saw from the Patriots this week, I'd say the Colts are the team to beat right now - if you can!
  • Philadelphia 37, Kansas City 31 (-2) (45.5 O/U) [P: $10.90, S: $10.00, O/U: $9.09, T: $29.99]: Philly had to come back a long way to win this one, and they did it. Someone needs to tell Andy Reid that Westbrook is a capable back, and that even though McNabb can throw through pain (and well, I might add - 369 yards and three TDs), he shouldn't have to. Granted, they had to make a comeback. Kansas City's defense looked like everyone expected it to. As for the offense, here's a question: You lead most of the game, and have a superb 1-2 combo at running back, and they only combine for 25 rushes, yet Trent Green lobbed up the ball 30 times, including two picks. How is that possible?
  • San Diego 41, New England 17 (-5) (47 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($30.00)]: Who predicted that the Chargers would go into Boston and beat up on the Patriots, who haven't lost at home since 2002? Yes, New England is hurting on defense, but they were last year too. Everyone says they don't have any big names on the team - that they win because they play as a team - but they do: Rodney Harrison and Teddy Bruschi. Both gone. That leaves two big holes to fill, and they haven't found people to fill those gaps yet. Can Troy Brown play linebacker? For the Chargers, it looks like they've remembered what got them into the playoffs last year: Tomlinson. He can run (134 yds, 2 TDs) and he can catch. And remember late in the first game during week one when the tight end dropped a pass in the end zone that would have given them the victory? Well, that's why you have Antonio Gates, who led the team in recieving, pulling in six catches for 108 yards. Those two players are why Drew Brees can look like a stud at quarterback, despite throwing for less than 250 yards.
  • Seattle 17, Washington 20 (-2) (36.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: $9.71, T: ($10.29)]: I'll look at this from the perspective I've been looking at most games: who ran more? Washington. They ran 16 more times than Seattle, for a total of 39 attempts. Seattle, despite having one of the best backs in the game, let Matt Hasselbeck throw the ball 38 times. Maybe they need to take a look at San Diego's game plan. At least Washington recognizes that they're better off running than passing.
  • St. Louis 24, New York Giants 44 (-3) (47 O/U) [P: $6.06, S: $10.00, O/U: ($10.00), T: $6.06]:?I heard this on the radio Monday night. Who would you rather have: Eli Manning or Peyton Manning? I heard arguments for both, but the point is that you can make an argument for taking Eli over his older brother. Sunday helped that argument, with Eli throwing for four touchdowns. I remember reading at the beginning of the season that Burress wouldn't get the bulk of the load for the Giants - that Toomer would because that's who Manning would be comfortable with. Well, Burress had 10 receptions (more than everyone else combined) and 200+ yards, plus two TDs. But that's not all: they still ran the ball, something St. Louis didn't do. Bulger threw 62 passes - I bet he needed ice after the game - despite only being down by 10 at the half.
  • New York Jets 3, Baltimore 13 (-7) (31 O/U) [P: $3.33, S: $10.00, O/U: ($10.00), T: $3.33]: Baltimore beat up on the poor Jets, who struggled on offense, only managing to hold the ball 21 minutes. Without a passing game, they couldn't establish Curtis Martin's game, and he never was effective. Baltimore finally got Jamal Lewis some touches, but he was unable to do much - he averaged less than three yards per carry, and despite 29 carries, he didn't break 100 yards. But, having not watched the game, here's a guess. It didn't matter how many yards Lewis gained per carry. He was getting touches to grind the clock out, which is what happened.
  • Dallas 13, Oakland 19 (-3) (47 O/U) [P: $5.59, S: $10.00, O/U: $9.80, T: $25.39]: No one really thought Oakland was that bad, right? No way they'd go 0-4 with Randy Moss on the field. Well, they were right, but that's not why they won. They established the run, with LaMont Jordan averaging almost five yards per carry. That number's an inflated "Moss effect" number by the way, but that's what was needed to win this game. Bledsoe went from comeback of the year to washed up veteran overnight, completing only 11 of 26 passes.
  • Minnesota 10, Atlanta 30 (-5.5) (44.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($30.00)]: Well, as it turns out, there's a very good reason that Culpepper has been struggling this year. He's been playing on a bum knee. That explains why he hasn't been taking off like he has in the past, and why he's been so inaccurate. I wonder why the news comes now of the injury though. I know why it was hidden - to keep teams from aiming for it, but do they think that the upcoming bye week will allow it to heal completely? If not, why the announcement? Maybe it was to make Mike Vick feel better, who left with an injury, but is expected to play next week. For Atlanta though, I don't see any reason why a healthy dose of D & D won't work until Vick is completely healed.
  • San Francisco 14, Arizona 31 (-3) (43 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: $9.90, T: ($10.10)]: It's hard to compare these two teams. Arizona passed the ball 46 times, yet still won. Of course, they still ran the ball 20 times more than San Francisco. Overall, they ran 35 more plays than the 49ers. That's because they dominated the game, holding onto it for 15 more minutes than San Francisco. Leaving your defense on the field that long is why the Cardinals were able to outscore the 49ers 31-0 after the first quarter and 20-0 in the second half. The way these teams are going, the next time they meet could be the game that decides?who gets the number one pick next year!
  • Green Bay* 29, Carolina 32 (-7.5) (43 O/U) [P: $2.92, S: $10.00, O/U: ($10.00), T: $2.92]: Brett Favre did just about everything he could to get the win and came up just short. It's hard to compare the stats on this one, because it's a little off-kilter because the Pack was down 32-13 in the 4th. That's quite a comeback, and I'm sure a little disappointing to come up short. There's two ways this can go from here: either Green Bay gets fired up because they realized they can turn it on when they need to, or they can get down on themselves because they did their best and still came up short. The good news for Green Bay is that, even at 0-4, they're still only a game back in the NFC North, who's now a combined 3-11 (with two of those wins being intradivision games).

Results Summary

  • Picks (this week): 8 - 6 (57.14%) - Winnings: ($22.08): Another disappointing week, losing money despite being above .500.
  • Picks (season): 32 - 28 (53.33%) - Winnings: ($117.85): Just digging myself farther into a hole that I probably won't get out of this season.
  • Spread (this week): 6 - 8 (42.86%) - Winnings: ($20.00): Down again. I'm not good at this, am I?
  • Spread (season): 23 - 36 (38.98%) - Winnings: ($130.00): Last year, I was 29-28 at this point. Two years ago, I was 35-23. I see a trend that I don't like here!
  • Over/Under (this week): 6 - 8 (42.86%) - Winnings: ($23.31): This is what I expected to be the norm for picking over/unders. I have no idea how to tell if a game's going to be a high scorer or not. For example, Green Bay versus Carolina should have been low scoring - Carolina has a good defense, so the Pack shouldn't be able to score, and Carolina's offense isn't great - they get the job done, and that's it. But they combined for 61 points!
  • Over/Under (season): 27 - 32 (45.76%) - Winnings: ($66.04): Still my best category, but still down.
  • Total Weekly Winnings: ($65.39): Another losing week. This is getting old!
  • Total Overall Winnings: ($313.88): I'm way down overall. over 18% loss. Ouch

I'm going to get better! I have to. Didn't I say that last week too?

Categories: Football