RossCode Picks - NFL Week II

posted on 2005-09-15 at 21:08:30 by Joel Ross

After a dismal week one, I'm hoping for a huge improvement this week. Of course, a lot of the teams I picked to win last week are too. It's amazing?to me how quickly the tide turns. A bad day for the Jets, and suddenly they're in danger of never winning again - if you listen to the talk!

Anyway, let's move on to this weekend's games, shall we?

  • Baltimore (-3.5) vs. Tennessee (36.5 O/U): Pittsburgh took Tennessee to the woodshed and laid a beating on them. Baltimore, on the other hand, got beat by probably the best offense in the league. If the Ravens play defense the way they did against the Colts, Tennessee won't be nearly as successful as Manning was, and they won't be putting many points on the board. All Baltimore has to do is get the ball in the end zone, and if you watched Willie Parker run through hole after hole against the Titans, well, you can see a game plan forming that should involve heavy doses of Jamal Lewis, with pinches of Chester Taylor when Lewis is getting oxygen after a 60 yard scamper.
  • Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay (-2.5) (35.5 O/U): I'm a little surprised that the Bucs are the favorite here, and that's why I'm going with the Bills. Yes, Losman is a rookie and is bound to have a bad game - he won't equal Roethlisberger's undefeated regular season last year - but they still have McGahee. Tampa Bay caught the Vikings on a bad day, and took advantage.
  • Detroit (-1) vs. Chicago (33 O/U): Da Bears managed all of seven points last week, but only yielded nine. That's a good day for the defense, but the offense needs to step up. If Jones can't run against the Lions, expect to see Benson get a fair amount of touches. Harrington needs to open things up?- he has three top young receivers, plus solid veterans at tight end and receiver. Plus, if Kevin Jones is to get going, then the passing game has to get better. It is surprising to see that, despite the ugliness last week, Harrington did OK - 2 TDs and no picks.
  • Jacksonville* vs. Indianapolis (-9) (46 O/U): The Colts are nine point favorites, which is getting close to a personal RossCode Picks rule - never give up 10 points. Someday, I'll revisit this and go back and see if it's a valid rule, but for now, I think 9 is too many, and the Jags will keep it closer than that. They'll lose, but it'll be by less than 9.
  • Minnesota vs. Cincinnati (-3) (47.5 O/U): Minnesota is one of the teams that the tide turned on - Culpepper's miserable play (he put up all of 0 points for my fantasy team!) has experts speculating on how far the Vikes will fall. Not far, in my eyes. Remember, Cincinnati played the Browns. It's hard to look at that game and conclude that the Bengals are going to have a decent year. I think they will, but you also can't say they'll beat the Vikings based on past performance against a sub-par team.
  • New Orleans vs. New York Giants (-3) (44 O/U): This is New Orleans "home away from home opener" and is the spotlight game this week. It's been moved to Monday night and to the Meadowlands and will captivate football fans across the country. I think that spotlight will help the Saints and hurt the Giants. Remember, the Giants beat up on Warner, who is past his prime (can you call one great season a prime?), but look deeper, and they didn't really play all that well. Amani Toomer didn't even have a catch.
  • New England (-3) vs. Carolina (43.5 O/U): This should be a good game. How the over/under got to 43 is beyond me. Carolina has a good defense (look past last week - that was emotion from the Saints), and you always step up against the defending champ. New England's defense isn't awesome, but it's good enough - remember, New England doesn't really have any outstanding stars - they do it through teamwork - and Carolina isn't going to put up a ton of points.
  • Pittsburgh (-6) vs. Houston (38.5 O/U): Carr is having a poor season so far (including the pre-season) and there's no reason to think that will change against the Steelers. On the other side, will Houston have any better luck stopping Parker than the Titans did? I doubt it.
  • San Francisco* vs. Philadelphia (-13.5) (41 O/U): I don't see the 49ers luck continuing - and it was luck, combined with a bad day for the Rams that allowed the 49ers to escape with a win. Philly, despite the injured McNabb, is just too good to lose to the 49ers. Don't believe me? The money line for picking the 49ers is +790. That means if you put $100 down, you'd get back $790 if the 49ers pull it off. On the other side, you'd have to put down $870 to win $100. This is another situation that if you were betting in real life, you might be better off taking the 49ers on the off chance they do win - the return is tremendous, where as the return on taking the Eagles is relatively small. But as you look at my pick, remember my rule about 10+ spreads that I mentioned above.
  • Atlanta vs. Seattle (PK) (41.5 O/U): Let me get this straight. Atlanta beats the NFC champ (whose been the champ for a while now), and that doesn't even get them a favorite spot against Seattle? Seattle couldn't handle Jacksonville, but suddenly they can hang with Mike Vick? I doubt it.
  • St. Louis vs. Arizona (PK) (44.5 O/U): Another one where the odds don't make sense. Arizona got beat by the Giants. I guess in fairness, the Rams did lose to the 49ers. Maybe they're settings odds based on how Martz calls plays? Yeah...that's got to be it.
  • Cleveland vs. Green Bay (-6.5) (41 O/U): How will Brett Favre adjust to Javan Walker's absense? Well, what better way to start than playing the lowly Browns? Even with their number one receiver out for the season, the Pack is still favored by a touchdown. That's got to hurt more than a little bit down in Ohio.
  • Miami* vs. New York Jets (-6) (37 O/U): The Jets and Dolfins have swapped positions. Before the season, everyone said Miami wouldn't be good - running back controversy, new coach adjusting to the pro style, and quarterback questions. And they said the Jets would be good - solid defense, Pennington back healthy, Martin a solid running back. Then Miami wins and New York loses. And just?like that, questions are flying about the Jets, and if they can pull through this season. Of course they can - it's week one. No one needs to panic - yet.
  • San Diego vs. Denver (-3) (45 O/U): Antonio Gates is back. That will definitely help the Chargers. Will Mike Anderson play? He's got a chest injury, and if he can't go, the arguably more dynamic Tatum Bell will get the start. Both are good backs, but I'm expecting to see Bell. You still have the issue that Plummer isn't that good, so Denver will struggle.
  • Kansas City (-1) vs. Oakland (53.5 O/U): There's that magic number of 51 - the experts say that if you ever see a?spread of 51 or over, take the under! It's a sure bet. I'm taking it, but if there ever were two teams who had the chance, it would be these guys. High powered offenses against low powered defenses. The perfect recipe for breaking the C-Mark? No, 100 points would be crazy.
  • Washington vs. Dallas (-6) (36 O/U): This is the original Monday Night matchup, and if Washington's play last week is any indication, it's a good thing that we have another one to watch. By the way, since when does the NFL schedule based on coaches? Neither team had high hopes going into the season, so how would they end up on MNF - playing each other no less? Gibbs vs. Parcells. That's where the story line is. One brilliant coach trying to?out-coach the other, but the problem is that neither have the players to make it work - Gibbs more so than Parcells. The Cowboys are in a better position than the 'Skins, but still. Neither team is good enough to warrant being the premiere team for MNF - both could be secondary teams, but they need a strong team to play against. Anyway, I don't see any reason why Dallas shouldn't win easily.

I hope I do better this week. It's pretty bad when you have to fall back on hope for your picks! I guess we'll see this weekend though.

Categories: Football