It's that time again! The NFL season is right around the corner - it starts Thursday night with the defending Super Bowl champ squaring off against the Dolfins in what could be?a pretty good game. I'm just happy to have football back!

In case you weren't around last year, come fall, this blog gets much more sports content than normal. Most of that is my weekly NFL picks - I make picks every week, picking the winner, against the spread, and over/under. Once the games are done, I review last week's picks. For those confused about the spread or money lines, I'll be putting together a primer so you can get up to speed on that too.

Anyway, having watched exactly 1/2 of one preseason game, I'll go ahead and put out this first week of picks.

• Miami vs. Pittsburgh (0) (34.5 O/U): The defending champs open up the season at home - most likely without Big Ben or Hines Ward. Ouch. And you can't even blame Roethlisberger for this one. A few months ago, you'd guess this was due to his motorcycling habits, but no - emergency surgery, which he''l recover from, but possibly not in time for the opener. Bummer for them. Now, Miami looks interesting this year. No more split at running back - Ronnie Brown is the main man, and with a passer like Culpepper (if he's healthy), he'll get room from defenses to move. They should have a good season, but drop their opener.
• Atlanta vs. Carolina (-6.5) (40 O/U): Carolina is the popular choice to make it to the Super Bowl this year - Steve Smith is now protected by Keyshawn Johnson, so he should get a few more one-on-one looks this year, and if not, well, Johnson isn't a bad second option. Atlanta still needs to figure out that their stud quarterback is good, but not a stud, and not someone to build a passing game around.
• Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay (-3) (34 O/U): Tampa Bay surprised everyone last year with their tough defense, and they should have no problem holding the Ravens to a low scoring bout.
• Buffalo* vs. New England (-10) (41 O/U): First caveat of my picks here. A star indicates that I picked Buffalo to cover, but not win. The Patriots should win, but a 10 point spread is a bit big this early. Plus, as a rule of thumb, any time I see a spread of 10 points or more, I'm cautious to actually pick the favorite.
• Cincinnati vs. Kansas City (-1.5) (47.5 O/U): If history serves, this should be a high scoring game?- both teams have great offenses, and only Cincinnati has anything resemblling a defense. Kansas City is routinely known for beating opponents by scoring a lot of points, not by limiting their oppenents offense, and against Cincy, that tactic won't work.
• Denver (-3.5) vs. St. Louis (46 O/U): St. Louis should be an interesting team to watch this year - not because they'll be a great team, but because you just don't know how they'll turn out. Bulger has a new(er) running back behind him, and aging receivers. Defense isn't great, so they'll probably struggle. Denver, on the other hand, always has solid running, no matter who's back there, and that should give them the edge.
• New Orleans vs. Cleveland (-3) (35 O/U): Here's a shocker: Cleveland is a favorite! And I'm picking them! New Orleans has the golden child - Reggie Bush, and the off season signing of Drew Brees should give New Orleans a great offense this season, but I think Cleveland will get this one.
• New York Jets vs. Tennessee (-2.5) (35.5 O/U): Two bottom feeders this year - such a change from just a few years ago when Steve McNair and the Titans were battling the Colts for division titles, and the Jets with Chad Pennington were on the up swing. Now, this game's just as meaningless now as it would be in December.
• Philadelphia (-4.5) vs. Houston (37 O/U): Houston just lost Davis for the year, and signed Ron Dayne. Is the preseason too long? I bet Texas thinks so! That definitely hurts David Carr's chances of putting together a great season. Philly, though, should rebound from last year, when they dealt with a lot of off-field issues (umm, well?just one. T.O.). Remember, this is a team that has been to the NFC championship or farther in 5 of the last 6 seasons. They're still a good team and this year should show that.
• Seattle (-7) vs. Detroit (45 O/U): Seattle opens the season in Detroit - and doesn't even make it on national TV. One of last season's Super Bowl contenders isn't on TV in the opening week? Unreal. Of course, Detroit isn't good, so this probably won't be much of a contest anyway.
• Chicago (-4.5) vs. Green Bay (35 O/U): A divisional rivalry right off the bat! Too bad Green Bay isn't all that good this year. Chicago needs (and wants) to prove that last year's defensive stand was not a fluke, and starting against a weak Packer offense should be a good start towards that goal.
• Dallas vs. Jacksonville (-1.5) (36.5 O/U): Jacksonville was kind of left in the shadows last year behind the Colts, but they quietly put together a great season. They try to continue that trend this year, and they'll have a good start against an improved Dallas team. If T.O. can stay on the field, the Cowboys should get some good offense, and their defense is pretty staunch.
• San Francisco vs. Arizona (-7.5) (42.5 O/U): Arizona?a more than seven point favorite? Is that right? Well, it is the 49ers. And Arizona did add Edge. Something tells me this will be about right, and Arizona might even be in the running for a playoff spot this year. As for the 49ers, well, I doubt it.
• Indianapolis (-3.5) vs. New York Giants (48 O/U): Manning against Manning. Big brother taking on little brother. The Giants have some pretty solid weapons on offense, with a solid, steady running game from Tiki and some pretty good receivers for Eli to throw to. But Indy is the regular season king, and no little brother's going to topple this kingdom.
• Minnesota vs. Washington (-4) (35.5 O/U): The talk of the pre-season (before games started) was that Washington was going to be good. But watching the preseason games, well, Washington didn't look so good. Yeah, it's possible they still could be good, but preseason didn't show any signs of that. Minnesota is rebuilding, whether they admit it or not. New (well, old) quarterback, no top receiver, and a new coach - all in the past two years. Good moves!
• San Diego (-3) vs. Oakland (43 O/U): Either everyone expects Oakland to be good, or the oddsmakers aren't as sold on Phillip Rivers as the Chargers front office is. My guess is the latter. Good thing L.T. can do everything. Maybe he'll step in and pass if they need it!

So I'm a little late in posting this, but I promise - I made my Dolfins/Steelers pick before the game started!

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