RossCode Picks - NFL Super Bowl

posted on 02/03/06 at 10:32:59 pm by Joel Ross

It's been a great season, and the past 20+ weeks are going to culminate with one (hopefully) spectacular game this Sunday, when the Steelers take on the Seahawks.

By the way, have you heard that Jerome Bettis is from Detroit? Why isn't the media talking about this?

  • Seattle vs. Pittsburgh (-3.5) (47 O/U): I'm going to take Seattle. They have not gotten the recognition they deserve all season, and they continue to be dogged by everyone. Don't believe me? They are an under dog to the six seed in the AFC. This is a team that finished with the second best record in the NFL, and got a win over the number one team (of course, so did Pittsburgh). I think that'll motivate them, and force people to recognize how good they are. Mike Holmgren is a tremendous coach, and once he finally gave up his GM reigns, Seattle really turned it around - Matt Hasselback is a great quarterback, the offensive line is awesome, and Shaun Alexander is, well, the league's leading rusher. Pittsburgh has a great defense, but they still won't be able to hold Alexander down all game. Now, remember, Seattle (Holmgren) was the one team to game plan for Steve Smith, so don't expect to see the same mistakes Denver made when the game starts. Denver was thrown off by an early passing game by Pittsburgh, despite the fact they did the same thing against Indy with great success. By the second half, all they had to do was grind out the clock with The Bus. Don't expect Seattle to be surprised. Of course, Cowher will know this, as he's a pretty good game planner too. This should be a nice little chess game early. For those who aren't hard core football fans, don't expect an exciting game - this should be a low scoring game, especially early.
  • Seattle vs. Pittsburgh (-3.5) (47 O/U): You thought I was done, didn't you? Nope. I'm going to argue for both sides. Pittsburgh is the number six seed, and a lot of people are complaining that they are favored. Well, there's?a good reason, and one I forgot going through the playoffs. Roethlisberger missed a few games this year, and if it wasn't for those games, they probably would have been one or two. Remember, this team isn't much different than last year's 15-1 team - they added Willy Parker, and no one would say they are worse because of it. Roethlisberger is playing better than last year - and the coaches have taken notice. Early in the year, this was a run-first, pass-second team, and with the progression of Big Ben, they've completlely changed their game plan in the playoffs to pass early, get a lead, and then shut it down for the rest of the game, protecting the lead by keeping it on the ground. Had Roethlisberger not progressed, the Steelers wouldn't be able to do that. Now, they have a choice - do you run or pass early in the game? Better yet, if you're Seattle, what do you game plan for? The Steelers have the upper hand, and Cowher knows that. Mike Shanahan was supposed to be a great game planner, yet Cowher outcoached him. Why wouldn't he be able to do the same with Holmgren? It'll be a close game, but the Steelers will come out of this one on top. Plus, Bettis is apparently from Detroit!

How's that for wishy-washy? Yeah, I do have a real pick though. It was a very tough decision. This game could go either way, and my prediction is that Pittsburgh will win it, despite what I said about Seattle. They are a team of destiny! Beating the #1, #2 and #3 AFC seed and then beating the #1 NFC seed is tough, but Pittsburgh is up for the task!

One of the cool things about the Super Bowl is all of the different things that you can bet on. Here's a few examples, with the money line. But first, a quick money line review. If the line is positive, that means you'd bet $100 to get the money line. Example: a money line of +105 means you bet $100 to win $105. A negative line means you'd have to put the line amount down to win $100. So a line of -110 means you'd bet $110 to win $100. In other words, a positive line implies underdog and a negative line implies favorite. Anyway, here's a sampling from BetCris.com:

  • Team to score first: Seattle (+100) or Pittsburgh (-130)
  • Team to score last: Seattle (-115) or Pittsburgh (-115)
  • Team to score first will win the game: Yes (-185) or No (+155)
  • Will there be a score in the last two minutes? Yes (-260) or No (+210)
  • Will either team score three unanswered times? Yes (-155) or No (+125)
  • First score of the game will be: TD (-160) or FG/Safety (+130)
  • Will there be a 2-point conversion? Yes (+400) or No (-600)
  • Team to have most 1st downs? Seattle (+115) or Pittsburgh (-145)
  • Will Seattle ever have the lead? Yes (-280) or No (+220)
  • Team to commit first turnover: Seattle (-125) or Pittsburgh (-105)
  • Which half will more points be scored? 1st (-110) or 2nd/OT (-120)
  • Team to commit more penalties: Seattle (-125) or Pittsburgh (-105)
  • Will there be a safety? Yes (+650) or No (-1150)
  • Will there be OT? Yes (+800) or No (-1300)
  • Largest lead in game? More than 13.5 (-125) or Less than 13.5 (-105)

And that's not all of them! It's amazing some of the ways you can lose your money! Some of them are so random. How would you pick them!? I'll stick to picking results.

Anyway, I'll review the game and my pick next week. Go enjoy the commercials!

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Categories: Football