So after all my talk about the home teams being almost unbeatable in the Divisional round, they go 2-2 this weekend. Who knew?! Well, apparently not me.

• Pittsburgh* 21, Indianapolis 18 (-9.5) (47.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: $10.00, O/U: $9.17, T: $9.17]: Where do we start? Payton Manning sending the punting unit off the field and converting a mid-field fourth down? The blown calls by the ref? The fumble by Bettis that all but hands the Colts the game? The TD saving tackle by Roethlisberger? Or the missed field goal by one of the best in the business, Mike "Idiot Kicker" Vanderjagt??No. None of those explain what happened in this game. The Colts lost because the Steelers were able to get to Manning without having to blitz. Yes, if you listened to the game commentators, you heard they were only successful when they were blitzing, but the opposite is actually true. They showed blitz, but rarely did (14 times all game). Manning adjusted based on what he saw, and when the blitz didn't come, his quick routes weren't open. He held the ball longer than normal, and as a result, the standard four man rush was able to get to him. Why didn't the offense adjust to this? Who knows. But the pressure (also due to very poor offensive line play) was enough to do two things: keep Manning from having a big game, and keep James from running effectively. He only had 13 attempts, despite the game never really being out of reach for an offense like Indy's. All of this sounds like the loss was solely the Colt's self-distruction. Don't mistake that as me saying the Steelers had nothing to do with that. They caused the self distruction by their stellar play.
• New England 13, Denver 27 (-3) (44 O/U) [P: $6.29, S: $10.00, O/U: $9.52, T: $25.81]: Tom Brady is human. We knew that, but tend to forgot that when you look at his 10-0 playoff record. But this past weekend, he wasn't the same player he was in those other 10 games. He threw high balls. He threw low balls. And he threw ill-advised balls (as was the case in Bailey's 100 yard interception return). But why didn't Brady have the success he usually does? Well, it's something that's plagued them in the past, but hasn't killed them - until they met Denver. They lack a running game. Corey Dillon was good in Cincinnati, but why hasn't he been all that good in New England? Could it be because when he played for Cincinnati, they were bad? Follow me here for a minute. They were bad. They were losing early in a?lot of games. What do teams do when they are down big early in games? Pass! What types of defenses do they face, then? Pass defenses. So it's really no wonder that when Dillon got the ball that he had room to run. Now fast forward to his time with the Patriots. They aren't usually down early, so he's expected to get the ball, and suddenly, he's not putting up solid numbers.
• Washington 10, Seattle 20 (-9.5) (41 O/U) [P: $2.38, S: $10.00, O/U: ($10.00), T: $2.38]: Washington took cues from Pittsburgh and eliminated the other team's best player early in the game. But it wasn't as successful as it was for the Steelers. Instead, Hasselback took the team on his back and willed them to win. Oh, and it was helped by Washington's propensity to try to come after him. Blitzing against a good quarterback simply doesn't work. You can't leave a solid quarterback for even two or three seconds when they are looking at single coverage. They don't get nervous like younger quarterbacks, and they'll burn you if you do it enough.
• Carolina 29, Chicago 21 (-2.5) (30 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: $9.62, T: ($10.38)]: Remember how all season I've been questioning the Bears defense? Everyone was touting how good they were, but I kept pointing out that their main competition came from the NFC North - six of their 16 games. Well, it turns out I was right. Or they had a bad game. My guess is it's a bit of both. Carolina took advantage of their mistakes - how do you let Steve Smith get behind the corner without safety help three times? Two ended with Smith in the endzone after the corner looked back at the quarterback while Smith kept running. This, after he racked up 160+ receiving yards the first time they met. Grossman showed he is inexperienced, going 17 of 41, including a very untimely interception late in the game. So let's see. Every first-time quarterback in the playoffs this year lost their first game. Of course, everyone said that the Bears offense had to step up to win in the playoffs. What was it? They had to score 20 or more points - their defense was good enough that if they scored 20 or more, they would win. Well, they scored 21, and it wasn't good enough. I'm not saying Grossman's play is excusable, but he wasn't the reason for the loss. A defense that allowed 61 points at home in eight games gave up 29 in this one. That's why they lost.

Results Summary

• Picks (this week): 2 - 2 (50.00%) - Winnings: ($11.33): Hmm. Same record as home teams.
• Picks (playoffs):?4 -?4 (50.00%) - Winnings: ($21.68): So much for the sure bet, huh?
• Spread (this week): 3 - 1 (75.00%) - Winnings: $20.00: By picking Pittsburgh to cover, I actually did OK here.
• Spread (playoffs):?4 - 4 (50.00%) - Winnings: $0.00: Even for the playoffs. Not too bad.
• Over/Under (this week): 3 - 1 (75.00%) - Winnings: $18.31: Somehow, I just knew!
• Over/Under (playoffs):?5 -?3 (62.50%) - Winnings: $17.11: I'm now up in a category. Nice
• Total Weekly Winnings: $26.98: Big week, despite not getting the whole home team thing right.
• Total Playoffs Winnings: ($4.56): Hanging around even, which isn't too bad. Could be better though!

So the Conference Finals are set! Once again, I can't wait!

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