NFL Betting: Moving Lines

posted on 09/14/07 at 10:28:45 pm by Joel Ross

I've never actually tracked how much lines for NFL games move throughout the week. I usually pick a point in time, usually Tuesday or Wednesday, and make my picks. The only time I look at other times is when a game is "off the board" - the sports books haven't set a line yet, usually because they're waiting to see if an injured player is going to play (for example, Eli Manning this week). Because the absence of key players - running backs, quarterbacks - can have a huge impact on an outcome, the books aren't willing to put a number out there.

Anyway, this week, I've had a page of the lines open in my browser. Since the Packers / Giants game was originally even, I noticed that it now had an actual spread - the Giants are now a 1.5 point favorite at a couple of the books. Going back and looking, the line for Cincy vs. Cleveland moved by a 1/2 point as well. What's interesting about that game is that it's anywhere from -6.5 to -8.5 at the other betting sites listed.

This brings up a whole other aspect to betting - when and where to place your bets. The above illustrates both of those. If think the Packers are going to win, you'd be much better off waiting to place your bet. You'd get another 1.5 points by waiting.

That's a bit hard to predict. You'd have to wait a bit to see how the line might move, and if you like the way it's moving, then you make a move. However, if it moves opposite of what you want, then you're out of luck. The other example is an easier to manage situation. If you're betting on the Bengals, then you'd go with the book offering -6.5. If you're a fan of the Browns, I'm sorry. But you'd bet with the book offering you 8.5 points.

This just once again reinforces why I don't actually place any bets!

Categories: Football