It's Back: 07-08 Week 1 NFL Picks

posted on 09/05/07 at 04:26:35 pm by Joel Ross

For those readers who are new in the past year, every fall, this blog shifts focus, and takes on a decidedly sports feel.?Every week until the Super Bowl, I'll be posting my picks for the weekend's games, and then following up with the results early the next week.

If you're curious, I make three different picks for every game each week: the outright winner, the winner against the spread (ATS), and whether the total score will be above or below the Over/Under (O/U). As an example, if I have a pick that looks like this:

  • Lions*?vs. Bears (-4) (37.5 O/U)

Here's how that pick should be interpreted: The spread is -4, meaning that the Bears are expected to win by 4 points. The Over/Under is 37, meaning the combined score between the two teams is expected to be 37.5 points. Since the Lions are bold, I think they'll cover the spread. The * indicates I think that the Lions will still lose though. If there's no *, then I think my spread pick will also win the game. Since the O is bold in the O/U, I think the combined score will be more than the 37 points predicted.

I have a spreadsheet that I track all of this in, and it keeps track of the lines for me, as well as calculate how I'm doing once I enter the actual scores. I'll review how the lines relate to payouts - something that used to confuse me until I sat down and finally figured it out.

Anyway, on to this week's picks. I may periodically make a few comments about the games, but that'll depend on how much time I have!

  • New Orleans vs. Indianapolis (-6) (52.5 O/U)
  • Philadelphia (-3) vs. Green Bay (43.5 O/U)
  • Atlanta vs. Minnesota (-3) (36 O/U): Vick, Vick, Vick. That's gotta suck for the Falcons.
  • Miami vs. Washington (-3) (35 O/U)
  • New England (-6.5) vs. New York Jets (41 O/U)
  • Tennessee* vs. Jacksonville (-6.5) (37.5 O/U): I was kind of surprised to see them cut Leftwich.
  • Denver (-3) vs. Buffalo (36.5 O/U)
  • Pittsburgh (-4.5) vs. Cleveland (37 O/U)
  • Carolina vs. St. Louis (-1) (42.5 O/U)
  • Kansas City vs. Houston (-3) (37.5 O/U): It's not often that you see Houston as a favorite. Is K.C. that bad?
  • Tampa Bay vs. Seattle (-6) (41 O/U)
  • Chicago vs. San Diego (-6) (42.5 O/U): I wonder how many of those 42 points the oddsmakers thought San Diego would put up?
  • Detroit vs. Oakland (-1.5) (39.5 O/U): Oakland as a favorite?
  • New York Giants vs. Dallas (-5.5) (44 O/U)
  • Baltimore vs. Cincinnati (-2.5) (40.5 O/U)
  • Arizona vs. San Francisco (-3) (45 O/U): So let me get this straight. Arizona?and San Francisco on Monday night? Against each other? I thought the NFL knew what they were doing!

I'll be back next Tuesday with the results...

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Categories: Football