07-08 Week 1 NFL Pick Results

posted on 09/11/07 at 09:01:58 pm by Joel Ross

As is custom, after the games have completed, I'll review how I did, including how much money I would have won or lost had I bet $10.00 per bet. Remember, I'm making three bets per game - straight up winner, spread winner and over/under, so that's a total of $30.00 per game, or between $420 and $480 per week, depending on how many games are played each week. Last season, overall, I ended up almost $130 for the year. Considering it would have involved putting down over $8,000, it's not a great return, and I wouldn't recommend betting on every game every week. Personally, I don't actually bet on any games at all - I just enjoy seeing how good (or bad) I would do.

Anyway, as promised, here's an explanation of how lines play into payouts. When you look at an actual line, it looks something like this:

Lions +4 (-110), +150, 37.5 (-110)
Bears -4 (-110), -170, 37.5 (-110)

This means that the Bears are favorites to win by 4 and the total of the two scores is expected to be 37.5 points. Where things get complicated are the lines. In the above example, the Lions have a line of +150. This means that for every $1.00 bet, you get back $1.50 - so a $10.00 bet would return $25.00: your original $10.00 plus $15.00 in winnings. You get better than even money because the Lions aren't favored, and therefore aren't expected to win. For the Bears, a line of -170 means that you have to bet $1.70 to win $1.00. So a bet of $10.00 would get you $15.88 back - your original $10.00, plus $5.88 in winnings. The -110 for the spread and the over under are fairly common, and indicate that if you bet $10.00, you're only going to get $9.09 in winnings. This ensures that the sports books always get a take.

Which brings us to the question of how lines are set. Basically, sports books have been doing it a while, so they get it pretty close to start with. They initially set the lines, and they move throughout the week based on how people are betting. The goal is to keep the money the same on either side - so ideally they'd have as much money picking the Lions as they have picking the Bears. If more people are picking the Lions than the Bears, the line will move (as will the spread) to make it more attractive to people betting on the Bears and less attractive to people betting on the Lions.

So there's a decent explanation of how lines and spreads work. Next, I'll explain how my results look, and what they mean. Here's a sample result:

  • Lions* 17, Bears 24 (-4) (37.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: $9.09, T: ($10.91)]

My original pick is still there - the Lions are bold, meaning that's who I picked to cover the spread. The * indicates they'll still lose, and the bold O says I picked over. Since the result is red, it means I was wrong. The final score is listed (Bears won 24-17), and the green O/U indicates I was right. After the scores are the amount I would have won or lost on that particular game based on a $10.00 bet for the pick, the spread pick and the O/U. In the above result, I lost $10.00 on both the pick (P) and spread pick (S), and won $9.09 on the over/under (O/U), for a total loss (T) of $10.91.

So with that, here's my (dismal) results from week 1.

  • New Orleans 10, Indianapolis 41 (-6) (52.5 O/U) [P: $3.85, S: $10.00, O/U: $9.09, T: $22.94]
  • Philadelphia 13 (-3), Green Bay 16 (43.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($30.00)]
  • Atlanta 3, Minnesota 24 (-3) (36 O/U) [P: $6.25, S: $10.00, O/U: $9.09, T: $25.34]
  • Miami 13, Washington 16 (-3) (35 O/U) [P: $6.06, S: $0.00, O/U: ($10.00), T: ($3.94)]
  • New England 38 (-6.5), New York Jets 14 (41 O/U) [P: $3.64, S: $10.00, O/U: ($10.00), T: $3.64]
  • Tennessee* 13, Jacksonville 10 (-6.5) (37.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: $10.00, O/U: $9.09, T: $9.09]
  • Denver 15 (-3), Buffalo 14 (36.5 O/U) [P: $5.71, S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($14.29)]
  • Pittsburgh 34 (-4.5), Cleveland 7 (37 O/U) [P: $4.35, S: $10.00, O/U: ($10.00), T: $4.35]
  • Carolina 27, St. Louis 13 (-1) (42.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($30.00)]
  • Kansas City 3, Houston 20 (-3) (37.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: $9.09, T: ($10.91)]
  • Tampa Bay 6, Seattle 20 (-6) (41 O/U) [P: $3.64, S: $10.00, O/U: $9.09, T: $22.73]
  • Chicago 3, San Diego 14 (-6) (42.5 O/U) [P: $3.64, S: $10.00, O/U: $9.09, T: $22.73]
  • Detroit 36, Oakland 21 (-1.5) (39.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($30.00)]
  • New York Giants 35, Dallas 45 (-5.5) (44 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($30.00)]
  • Baltimore 20, Cincinnati 27 (-2.5) (40.5 O/U) [P: ($10.00), S: ($10.00), O/U: ($10.00), T: ($30.00)]
  • Arizona 17, San Francisco 20 (-3) (45 O/U) [P: $5.26, S: $0.00, O/U: $9.09, T: $14.35]

Results Summary

  • Picks (this week and overall): 9 - 7 (56.25%) - Winnings: ($27.61)
  • Spread (this week and overall): 7 - 7 (50.00%) - Winnings: $0.00
  • Over/Under (this week and overall): 7 - 9 (43.75%) - Winnings: ($26.36)
  • Total Weekly and Overall Winnings: ($53.97)

And this right here is why 1.) you never bet on week one and 2.) you never bet all games. If I would have picked just a few games, I would have picked Minnesota over Atlanta, Pittsburgh over Cleveland, Seattle over Tampa Bay, and Kansas City over Houston. I'd never bet the O/U, and I'd probably bet straight up - no spread. That'd be 3-1 for the week, dropping $40, and winning $4.24. Not exactly a big number, but it's over a 10% return in a week!

Anyway, I'll be back later in the week with my picks for week 2.

Categories: Football